https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-15000-very-likely-as-coronavirus-pandemic-hits-us-economy-strategist-181857580.html
Dow 15,000 very likely as coronavirus pandemic hits U.S. economy: strategist
That is, at least one more major course correction is ahead for equities as investors realize — once and for all — the U.S. economy is in a severe recession that won’t end anytime soon. It’s a call he has reiterated several times as a guest on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.
By McDonald’s math, he continues to see downside risk to the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 15,000 from its current perch just above 21,000. He thinks the economy could begin to show signs of life in the fourth quarter of this year — but until that starts to show up somewhere in the markets or economic data, he prefers putting on trades that profit from extreme volatility and downside.
Yahoo Finance highlights a call such as this because, well, McDonald has been dead right so far. Moreover, April has lived up to its billing in the early going as potentially lethal to stocks because of dreadful economic data nobody on Wall Street has ever seen before.
March non-farm payrolls plunged 701,000. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The leisure and hospitality sector shed 459,000 jobs. Keep in mind this jobs data only reflects survey data up to March 12. The April employment report is widely expected to show a massive spike in job losses that reflects the 10 million people that have filed for unemployment benefits in the past two weeks.
After flirting between gains and losses in the morning, the Dow fell nearly 500 points by afternoon trading. The action in the markets today indicates investors haven’t fully grasped how much the coronavirus is derailing the U.S. economy.
在危机中的价值投资：
买入时间：3次分批买入，
本次反弹会也许横盘震荡或者V反转向上或继续下跌其实没有人能知道。对于做中长线投资，这些都不重要。
现在是第一个反弹平台，分批建仓第一批。20000-22000 点左右，分批买入 33%
现在是第一个反弹平台，分批建仓第一批。20000-22000 点左右，分批买入 33%
下一批，如果反弹上涨，突破下一个支撑位26000，建仓等下跌。短线做空头指标Spxc
中长线买下一个支撑位 18000左右33%,短线做多头指标TQqq
中长线买下一个支撑位 18000左右33%,短线做多头指标TQqq
再下一批，15000，全额买入33%。如果下不到1500，而是继续横盘下去1800-2600，等牛市行情确立，也许一年或以上，再买入。短线做大多头。
IRA: ETFs. 下跌20%以内不去管，follow the allocation rule。allocate gold, energy，us bonds.
cash :
Stocks:
BRK-B: $160,
coco cola
Apple PE 15 买,
Bank of America, American Express, DAL: next drop 炒底航空，石油，因为疫情的还不明朗
Tesla: would like to have 10, around $400 5 , around $300 buy 5
比特币：1/2. 5000/2
Index funds:
QQQ
SPY
科技股 ETF or Apple/Google/Microsoft/FB/Nvidia/TSM-dividend/intc/amd
Bank:
Bank of America $20
Visa $140
CityGroup 35
BK(30)
China/taiwan:based on ETF
baba, JD, pdd, banks, construction,TSM,Tencent
Dividend stocks(when the virus is clear, switch virus stock to dividend stocks):
疫情深度下跌股: - watch when virus threads is clear out... these will be up quickest.
Starbux: 50
cake 10
dis-dividend. buy $80-90 , high $123.
Mar 60-70 high 150/Helton 50-65
boing: buy $100 high $400
GE: 6-7 below 7
3m($120)
CCL: 10
nclh (8-10) high $57
DAL(21)/
southwest(30)/
jetblue(7-10) high 20
uber: 17-20, high $40
svc(4-5.5) high 15
gm-(16) high 34
黄金：152 bought…GLD 5%. Silver 2%, GNUT 2%.
石油：现在是历史最低，长期投资 20%.
Marathon Petroleum Corp  and Phillips 66 as the companies with “significant” operations on coastal areas and thus ready to take advantage of crude oversupply
USO:500x4.8. hold half year, goal : $12.
XOM-dividend: buy $30. high 55
国债：避险 股市创新高爆涨 put 50%，股市爆跌3%-投资股票.
垃圾债：股市暴跌，政府救市购买垃圾债
美元指数/汇率：股市暴跌，美元流动性危机，抛售黄金补贴亏空。因为美股暴跌或危机造成世界金融市场动荡甚至崩溃，各国纷纷买最可靠的美元避险。
allocation：股市不断创新高，泡沫形成，逐步减持股票，增持国债黄金。当股市爆跌10%以内，不用去管。当股市跌到20%进入熊市，退出股票卖国债黄金，退出观望。当熊市持续，股市泡沫挤破, 金融崩溃m股市继续下跌（30%-50%-70%），入场分3-5批购买。
一般，股市先跌20-30%；然后黄金国债跟跌，政府救市垃圾债开始上涨，然后各国金融面临崩溃，美元汇率上涨。当股市回转上涨，如果政府大量印钞救市，通货膨胀压力造成黄金大涨，国债下跌，美元走弱，有利于于经济发展。