全球金融危机可能始于此。随着银行变得贪婪和过度杠杆化，放出掠夺性贷款，并且对填补底线极为不负责任，经济受到重创。银行被压垮了。可怕的监督，操纵，违法和摇摇欲坠的行为是其根本原因。银行即将破产，企业首席执行官争先恐后，股市猛烈崩溃。那怎么了政府和美联储随后进行了数万亿美元的救助。纳税人是左撇子公司，几十年来，这些公司一直在向您和我收取越来越多的费用，并对不了解的人进行非法的掠夺性借贷程序。他们为什么不能只剩下破产？因为他们有非常有影响力的游说团体，他们说我们最好让他们继续生活。因此，美联储开始印刷，以保持腐败的金融体系的运转。查看美联储的历史资产负债表：
Source: Financial Times
为什么我认为自大萧条以来最严重的衰退中，股票市场很有可能进入泡沫？查看一下现在充入系统的金额。在金融危机中，美联储向市场注入了约2万亿美元。然后扩大了QE2和QE3，资产负债表达到了4-5万亿美元左右。随着股市跌幅超过30％，创下有史以来最快的跌幅，美联储做了什么？宣布了无限的量化宽松政策或课程！资产负债表扩张的速度为每秒100万美元，并且预计它将达到9万亿美元左右，这也就不足为奇了，我们看到资产价格不断上涨。一个想法–如果这不是政府实体，您能否辩称这是市场操纵？记住，孩子们，不要与美联储抗争，因为只要他们愿意，他们就能使股市飙升。
说到泡沫，纳税人似乎也即将在这里为小企业提供一些免费贷款。作为CARES法案的一部分，“薪资保护计划”正在向最多500名员工的小型企业提供贷款。它可以向小企业提供每笔最多1000万美元的贷款，给纳税人的价格约为3490亿美元。不仅如此，这些贷款在用于雇用人员时可以原谅。因此，您是说我们要开展业务几个月，最终可能最终破产？我的朋友们，这就是通过使无利可图的企业因政府的救助而显得有利可图的方法，使公司的股票表现进入泡沫时期。 更不用说，他们可能正在逐步提振股票市场，而不必像购买国债一样走上中间路线。美联储前主席珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）要求国会召集并允许美联储购买股票。美国政府允许购买公开交易证券的工具。如果您支持资本主义并阻止公司在自由市场上交易，让赢家获胜而输家则输，那不仅是社会主义精简体系吗？这是成为上市公司的绝佳时机。您可以在好时机回购股票并分配股息，甚至可以借钱这样做，但是当形势艰难且出现衰退时，没问题-美联储将为您提供援助。纳税人将负担任何费用。那不应该引起任何道德风险问题
当然，作为投资者，您必须尝试确定您想用钱做什么。对我来说，鉴于近期记忆中经济与股市的最大脱节，我们似乎可能会形成资产泡沫。超前滞后报告中的信号在这里看起来真的很有趣，尤其是当它们在1月27日“避险”并在我警告订户的整个股市崩盘中一直保持这种状态时。我仍然认为您可以在这里看涨，认识到我们已经从低位迈出了一大步，并且这里存在鞭打风险。我确实认为可能会形成资产泡沫。 历史上一些最重要的收获是资产泡沫，但是，如果您足够聪明，可以在泡沫破灭之前走出去。
Coronavirus Stock Market Rally: No OPEC+ Production Deal, Tesla's China Moves, Delta Cut To Junk, Intel, Taiwan Semi Sales Strong
U.S. stock market trading was closed for Good Friday after a strong, volatile week for the coronavirus stock market rally, but there was plenty of important news. An OPEC+ crude oil production deal remained out of reach. Tesla(TSLA) will make more China Model 3 variants, at cheaper prices, while furloughing more U.S. workers. Intel (INTC) and Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM) reported strong chip demand amid the coronavirus crisis. Fitch Ratings downgraded Delta Air Lines (DAL) as the industry awaits a possible bailout.
No OPEC+ Crude Oil Production Cut Deal Yet
There's still no final OPEC+ crude oil production deal reducing output by 10 million barrels per day, starting May 1. Mexico won't agree to do its share by reducing output by 400,000 bpd. Early Friday, Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador says his country will cut by 150,000 bpd after Trump said the U.S. will reduce its production by a further 250,000 bpd. That apparently isn't enough to satisfy Saudi Arabia.
Also, Group of 20 energy ministers aren't backing any specific supply cuts. Saudi Arabia had hoped the U.S., Canada and others would collectively cut by five million bpd. U.S. and Canadian output will fall substantially over time due to low prices, but over time.
Crude oil prices have rallied from long-time lows on hopes for an OPEC production cut, but reversed sharply lower Thursday on doubts that an accord would be reached. There's also concern that a cut of 10 million bpd may not be enough as crude oil demand plunges due to the global coronavirus recession.
Higher prices could help save many U.S. shale producers and tens of thousands of high-paying oil and gas workers.
Coronavirus News
Worldwide coronavirus cases are more than 1.698 million, with official Covid-19 deaths topping 102,000. Friday's daily gain of 94,625 new cases topped Thursday's.
Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have topped 502,000. New cases rose 33,752 on Friday, a slight decline from Thursday. Daily new Covid-19 cases have plateaued over the last several days. Meanwhile, the percentage gain in new cases has been trending lower, to 7.2% vs. 7.8% on Thursday and 13.2% on April 3.. The U.S. coronavirus death toll is above 18,700. Friday's coronavirus death toll of 2,035 was a new high, but that also may be starting to level off.
European cases continue to climb, though the percentage gains generally have slowed considerably. But U.K. coronavirus cases surged a record 8,681 to 73,758, while deaths hit a new one-day high.
Meanwhile, Turkey, Russia, Brazil and India are showing significant increases.
Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOGL), in a rare alliance, will add tech to their smartphone systems alerting users if they've come in contact with someone with the coronavirus. Apple iPhone and Android handset users will have to opt into the contact-tracing system, but it could ultimately reach some three billion people.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) antiviral remdesivir showed promising results among 53 seriously ill coronavirus patients.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) has begun enrolling patients in Brazil for a phase one trial of its antiviral galidesivir in Covid-19 patients. Vir Biotechnology (VIR) reached a deal for Samsung Biologics to make two Vir antibodies for treating coronavirus patients.
Coronavirus Stock Market Rally
The coronavirus stock market rally continued last week, but there were plenty of upside and downside reversals for the major indexes and leading stocks to keep investors on edge.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 12.7%, the S&P 500 index 12.1% and the Nasdaq composite 10.6%. A Nasdaq follow-through dayon April 6 bolstered confidence in the coronavirus stock market rally after a somewhat-lackluster S&P 500 FTD on April 2.
Growth stocks have lagged somewhat during the coronavirus stock market rally. Breakouts have been scarce so far, with several of those struggling.
Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rallied about 7%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) leapt 11.1%.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 10.6%. The SMH ETF briefly cleared its 50-day line on Thursday, but reversed lower, closing back below its 200-day average as well. The SMH ETF's top four holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor stock, Intel stock, Nvidia stock and ASML (ASML)all reversed lower on Thursday.