巴菲特上周减持航空股。虽然只是小部分，但是，巴菲特一般不会在低位减持股票，看来他对现在航空业真的失去信心，对近期股市失去信心。也有可能，他发现了有潜力的股票抄底或者想收购的公司。人人都知道就把益差的卖了，买收益好的，股神怎么会不知道。这个至少告诉我们，航空股下跌了50%不是抄底的时候，现在石油十八年新低，下跌了80%左右，Oxy是巴菲特长期看好的股已经下跌80%，XOM也是他的喜爱，会不会是抄底石油？或者收购石油公司？
Berkshire Hathaway looks like a decent bet if the market goes up, down or sideways
If the stock market goes up, that should be great for the stock. Berkshire has investments in Bank of America BAC, -2.62% , Goldman Sachs GS, -2.00% , various airlines, and other companies sensitive to the economy. Berkshire Hathaway held just over $250 billion in publicly traded stock as of Dec. 31, and is currently nursing about $100 billion in paper losses on these just from the recent crash.
So if there’s a quick recovery, you’d expect Berkshire stock, which has fallen from $230 to $176, to go back up quite quickly.
On the other hand, if the coronavirus crisis goes on, and economic distress gets worse and worse, the company has a gigantic cash hoard of $125 billion it can use to snap up investments at bargain basement prices. (That, for illustration, is worth about $50 for each Berkshire Hathaway “B” share.)
That’s how Buffett has made big money in the past, from the bear market of 1974 to the financial crisis of 2008. “Be fearful when others are greedy,” he famously advised, and “be greedy only when others are fearful.”
Then there’s the third way to win. If things don’t get much worse, or much better, but bounce around indefinitely, Buffett can always use some of that cash to buy back Berkshire stock.
“Over time, we want Berkshire’s share count to go down,” he reminded investors in his latest letter. The fewer the shares, the greater the proportionate interest of each one. But, he added, “Berkshire will buy back its stock only if…Charlie and I believe that it is selling for less than it is worth.”
Prices in 2019 were “modestly favorable at times,” he wrote, meaning the stock was trading for substantially less than the intrinsic worth.
本周本来想等下跌开始长线布局，结果一直盘整没有机会。华尔街知道我们韭菜离场在等下跌，所以不会跌。韭菜还在等下周会下跌，估计下周也不会，不然韭菜就都赚钱了。华尔街一定会等大家都对下跌产生怀疑，突然下跌。本周开始用5%做短线
盈利：$759。
1. oxy,uso 看到巴菲特买入oxy，所以跟进，结果特朗普推特说要萨特减产，与OPAC开会，结果大涨。本来可以赚20%以上，结果10%就获利逃跑，不敢持股过夜。
2. 本来看跌重仓tvxy ，结果周五大盘确实下跌，但是tyxy 也下跌，只好割肉 337–320 损失$89，周五停盘前买进303，收盘299。下周大盘走高走低，TYXY $303都不会亏。
3. enia 本来该盈利8%结果贪高回落后猖狂逃离打平。
4. SWN和MRNA小赚，石油和疫情白宫消息股，下周一密切关注，逢高出货。
Next week:
短线波段操作：MRNA $35-38, GE 6.7-7.5, SWN，SPYX,VTIX,TQQQ,etc
中长线：
继续持USO（4.2 成本）持一个季度以上，原油回归49左右
GLD（149 -156 成本）股市回暖，经济复苏，通货膨胀开始，黄金会下一轮暴涨，减持黄金买股票。
期权：这些股票风险很大，有可能破产或重组，做期权就可以降低风险。
石油：USO，oxy，MOT，
银行，
旅游，
航空，近期4/9 空头期权，长期1/2/2021 多头期权
BA 股价100左右是合理市值，1/1/2021 期权150
特斯拉，1/1/2021 期权 550 现在期权价格：115太贵
长线存股：CISCO, ORACLE, BRK，AT&T，BABA, Tensnt, JD, APPLE, MS, Google, FB,3M,etc...
长线ETF: vanguard energy, 科技ETF，银行ETF，医疗
旅游航空将会有至少两个季度影响，人们不会出门，所以，最坏的消息还没有到。
基建ETF，因为钱都花在医疗和基本生活上，基建要等疫情过后经济开始复苏再考虑。